Iran is fighting a different war: Older, slower, and in some ways more dangerous. Iran doesn't need to shoot down an F/A-18. It only needs to make the Strait of Hormuz feel dangerous long enough for insurance markets, shipping companies, and oil futures traders to do the rest. Prem Panicker continues his must-read daily blog on the war in the Middle East.
'The next two to three weeks will not be decided in Washington.' 'They will be decided in Tehran, in whatever calculation Iran makes about the costs of continued resistance against the costs of appearing to have yielded.'
His remarks come after Trump warned Iran of severe consequences if it fails to reopen the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, a key global energy transit route.
The Indian government has convened an all-party meeting to discuss the ongoing crisis in West Asia, following Prime Minister Modi's address to Parliament on the situation and its potential impact on India.
The ceasefire is still technically holding, to the extent that no overt hostilities have been reported yet, but the rhetoric has hardened dangerously. The week ahead will also clarify whether the Islamabad failure was a negotiating tactic or whether Washington has genuinely locked itself into a position from which the only exits are climb-down, escalation, or the slow bleed of a new status quo that nobody chose and nobody controls. Prem Panicker continues his must read blog on the Iran War.
If you are actively trading, you can't possibly overlook headlines. Early announcements, policy changes, or even a disruption in a certain industry habitually grab your attention. These headlines, when strategically assessed, can generate profitable trading ideas.
From the 30-Sensex firms, Trent, Larsen & Toubro, Reliance Industries, InterGlobe Aviation, Maruti, ITC, Adani Ports and Bharat Electronics were among the biggest laggards. In contrast, Eternal, ICICI Bank, Tech Mahindra, State Bank of India and Tata Consultancy Services were among the gainers.
India significantly increased piped natural gas (PNG) connections in March as the government accelerates the expansion of cleaner fuel networks amid global supply disruptions.
The 'rescue' operation occurred within kilometres of Iran's underground tunnel complex at Isfahan, assessed by the IAEA and US intelligence as holding a substantial portion of the country's 60 per cent enriched uranium stockpile. Retired senior US military officers have highlighted that the mission's footprint -- hundreds of special operators, multiple heavy-lift aircraft deep inside Iran -- appears outsized for recovering a single airman. Prem Panicker continues his must read blog on the Iran War.
India's trade account could come under pressure and there could be an inflation push if crude oil prices remain above the $90 per barrel (Brent) for a prolonged period since India imports over 85 per cent of its oil and roughly 50 per cent of its gas. A rebound in economic activity is bound to lead to higher fuel demand. While India is the third-largest importer of crude, it is a net exporter of refined products, which helps to compensate to some degree.
With the Iran war escalating sharply and crisis deepening in the global energy market, India on Monday unveiled a coordinated plan to support exporters and shippers caught in the fallout.
The purge in Washington does not pause the war. Strikes continue, Hormuz remains closed, and Brent crude is still dancing around $109 a barrel. For India, the command chaos in the Pentagon is another layer of uncertainty piled on five weeks of conflict that was already straining every buffer Delhi has.
'Every day the meter is ticking. Like a time bomb.' Shipping giants are billing Indian exporters up to $3,000 per container in war surcharges -- on cargo that sailed before the war began -- as the Strait of Hormuz shuts down.
The LPG squeeze on India's restaurant sector is the quotidian face of a deeper crisis.
'Our diplomacy should have been focused on preventing war and avoiding the inevitable disruptions it would cause, posing a real risk to India's growth story,' asserts former foreign secretary Shyam Saran.
India could save $1 billion in crude oil imports annually if the country switches 10 per cent of its diesel usage in the transport sector to liquefied natural gas.
All the BSE sectoral indices closed in the green. BSE Realty, Auto, Capital Goods and Industrials were lead gainers, jumping up to 5 per cent. IndusInd Bank was the lead gainer among Sensex shares, surging by 6.84 per cent. Tata Motors rallied 4.50 per cent. Larsen & Toubro, Axis Bank, Adani Ports, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and HCL Tech were also among the gainers. ITC and Hindustan Unilever were the only laggards.
From the 30-share blue-chip pack, Zomato cracked nearly 7 per cent. Power Grid, Adani Ports, Tata Steel, NTPC, Tata Motors, Tech Mahindra, Mahindra & Mahindra, Asian Paints, Sun Pharma and UltraTech Cement were the other major laggards. In contrast, Axis Bank, Hindustan Unilever, Tata Consultancy Services and IndusInd Bank were the gainers.
Despite Iran allowing 'non-hostile vessels' through the Strait of Hormuz, marine insurance premiums are expected to remain elevated due to persistent high-risk classifications and ongoing geopolitical tensions, with experts cautioning that the threat of attacks and collateral damage still exists.
'Was the five-day pause ever meant to hold, or was it simply another instrument of signaling, of positioning, of buying time in a war where even the pauses are tactical?' asks Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
The cost of the war is being counted not in the corridors of power in Washington or Tehran, but in Firozabad's darkened furnace rooms, Howrah's idle casting sheds, and a barbershop in Kochi where the wait is suddenly, inexplicably, an hour long, notes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the Iran War.
From the 30 Sensex firms, IndusInd Bank, Asian Paints, Hindustan Unilever, Tata Motors, Tata Steel, Titan, Reliance Industries and NTPC were among the major laggards. Tech Mahindra, Mahindra & Mahindra, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Infosys, HCL Technologies and State Bank of India were among the major gainers.
Shares of tyre manufacturers have outperformed broader equity benchmarks, buoyed by multiple tailwinds. Softer raw material prices, an uptick in demand from automakers following the reduction of the goods and services tax (GST) rates, and steady replacement demand have lifted sentiment toward the sector.
Among Sensex firms, Tata Steel, Eternal, UltraTech Cement, Larsen & Toubro, Maruti and Bharti Airtel were the major gainers. However, Hindustan Unilever, Sun Pharma, ITC and Asian Paints were among the laggards.
The benchmark BSE Sensex's trailing 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple has declined to 20.2x, its lowest since May 2020, driven by a record $42 billion FPI selloff since September 2024 and concerns over corporate earnings and economic growth.
"The US President's statements are within the framework of efforts to reduce energy prices and gain time to implement his military plans," the ministry stated.
From the Sensex firms, Bharat Electronics, Mahindra & Mahindra, Titan, NTPC, State Bank of India, Adani Ports, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles and Bajaj Finserv were among the major laggards. Tata Consultancy Services, ICICI Bank, Infosys and HDFC Bank were among the gainers.
Haryana Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini has launched development projects worth 253 crore in Jind district, focusing on irrigation, infrastructure, health, and water supply.
Margins for the oil refining and retailing sector have moved off their peaks, and the average integrated margins (refining plus marketing) for oil marketing companies (OMCs) have normalised. The ascent in crude oil prices, combined with static retail prices, has depressed marketing margins for diesel and petrol. However, the fall in marketing margins has been offset by increased gross refining margins (GRMs).
Tata Consultancy Services, Tech Mahindra, Infosys, HCL Tech, Bharti Airtel, Sun Pharma, Bharat Electronics and Trent were the major gainers among Sensex scrips. However, Maruti, Eternal, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Titan were among the laggards.
From just 0.2 per cent before the Russia-Ukraine war to now accounting for 35-40 per cent of total crude imports, India's reliance on Russian oil has surged -- drawing fresh scrutiny with US President Donald Trump announcing a penalty on top of a 25 per cent tariff, or tax, on all goods going to the US.
Qatar has halted liquefied natural gas (LNG) production after its facilities came under attack amid the ongoing West Asia conflict, disrupting supplies to India and squeezing feedstock availability for key domestic sectors.
The Indian government has revised its natural gas allocation priorities, placing LPG production alongside CNG and piped cooking gas at the top, due to disruptions in imported gas supplies caused by the conflict in West Asia.
There are hopes of a turnaround in overall corporate earnings after six quarters of single digit growth.
From the 30 blue-chip pack, Tata Motors, Titan, Tata Steel, State Bank of India, Mahindra & Mahindra, NTPC, ICICI Bank, Maruti, HDFC Bank and Infosys were among the biggest laggards. Zomato, Tech Mahindra, HCL Tech and IndusInd Bank were among the gainers.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a virtual meeting with chief ministers to review preparedness and plans in light of the West Asia conflict, emphasising the importance of national unity and enhanced security measures.
From the Sensex firms, HCL Tech, Tata Steel, Tech Mahindra, Reliance Industries, Bharat Electronics and ICICI Bank were among the laggards. Bajaj Finance, Hindustan Unilever, UltraTech Cement and Power Grid were among the gainers.
The rupee appreciated 53 paise to close at 89.67 against the US dollar on Friday, supported by corporate dollar inflows and easing crude oil prices. Forex traders said a positive trend in domestic equities and Brent crude oil prices hovering near $59 per barrel supported the domestic unit at lower levels.
The pause gives the US time to breathe, to regroup, to move its expeditionary force into position without risk of interception along the way. It gives Iran nothing -- on the ground, attacks against its infrastructure continue apace. Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
US sanctions against two of Russia's largest oil companies are expected to impact Reliance Industries' crude imports from Russia, while state-run refiners may continue purchases through intermediary traders for now.
